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EUR/USD (GENERAL)

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576 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:19 pm

PipChick

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We all know by now that the US Credit Rating was down graded from a AAA (which it has held since 1917) to a AA+. I have no idea what affect this will have on the stock market but Kenfen mentioned in the FF thread that the Saudi Stock Mkt sold off on Sat. (today) and I am wondering if that could be a clue of what Monday will look like for the US. No way for us to know until the mkt opens. Here is the link kenfen provided: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8686045/Saudi-stock-market-first-to-plunge-on-SandP-downgrade.html

In the mean time, I will check out the technicals.....
I have been watching this YM monthly chart for a long time now and have been anticipating a sell off myself. When the EU was trading close to 1.5, I became very nervous to open any long positions mainly because of the YM monthly chart.

What we have on the monthly YM is a perfect ABC short pattern off the crucial 78.6 fib WITH bearish hidden divergence. I wont even think about the target because its a bit frightening. Price briefly tested the 50 ema and bounced a bit but thats some pretty prominent bearish hidden divergence. And now with the credit downgrade...hmmmmm things "could" get very bad. But, we will have to wait until Monday to see how the investors take this news as we have no idea whether they will react negatively or not give a hoot.

YM Monthly:

http://forexalliancefx.com/

577 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:27 pm

PipChick

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EU Monthly:
We have an abc short with bearish hidden divergence. The last three hi peaks formed lower hi's...BUT, there is also a bull flag present where price has closed ABOVE the bull flag TL for the last 5 months in a row. So the chart is a bit mixed but all it needs is some fundi action to give it direction. Could the downgrade be the fundi action it needs?

Heres the chart:
EU Monthly:

http://forexalliancefx.com/

578 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:36 pm

PipChick

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Now the EU H1 and the DX H1:

The EU has an abc short off the crucial 78.6 fib. with decreasing vol on the last upmove. Bearish hidden divergence isnt quite as prominent as I like it. The DX has an abc long setup off the 61.8 with bullish hidden divergence and decreasing vol on the the last down move. TECHNICALLY speaking...the charts are no doubt set to go short. (of course the fundies can definitely ruin the set ups)

EU H1:


DX H1:

http://forexalliancefx.com/

579 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Aug 09, 2011 7:21 am

Guest


Guest
i will post my view on eur/usd from 4hr upto monthly in a min -

580 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:01 am

Guest


Guest
ok long time no see - and we are still in no mans land on eur/usd ...

ive mention to Pipchick that the monthly IS NOT a bullflag - its a zizag top ( clearly visible on volumes ) and we should tumble down sometime next year (beginning) .

ok weekly chart - parralel the top TL from the bottom TL and than we might still move steadily higher to test that "TL" and funny enough i have an untest ress @ 1.5030

i perosonally reckon we should move slowly upwards to 1.5030 BEFORE we going to tumble down and i mean DOWN - long term ,i do see 0.80 - ( conservative-- parity)

what i really do like is that the weekly 200 SMA runs excatly on KEY supp @ 1.4050 - ANY weekly close below 1.4050 , i am going to press the sell buttons . so i keep an close eye on that level on weekly chart - .

if we decide to notch higher , then i will start fade my possition @ 1.5030 ,otherwise weekly close below 200 SMA & 1.4050 ,will be good enough for a 1200 pip drop ( NO REAL SUPPORTS below 1.4 - ONLY MINOR pitstops . my first real supp is @ 1.2770 - but there is a possibility that i am going one go for parity on eur/usd - its a tough call ,and the real breakdown can also only happen in 2 years time ? i dont know.

i do see 1.55 but will focus on that level after we break 1.5 and if it looks like we might go higher - no point to worry about that right now as i am focus on double top weekly @ 1.5's and down we go to 1.3's

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medium term : i dont really know much about that - all i can see 1.4770 is an untest ress and we should get a decent attack at that level- otherwise ping pong between 1.42 and 1.48/ 1.5030 before we top! or break below 1.4050

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open aus/usd weekly chart and eur/usd chart - the SAME might happen on eur/usd - kinda bullflag then a quick rally to take out the high's then double top - aus/usd already happen and eur/usd is lagging- so i guess on eur/usd after this daily bullflag , a quick rally to 1.5's ( double top - testing the TL ) then HOLLA - down we go !

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on all the crosses : i could not ask for a better move on gbp/aud and eur/aus - been wait for these 2 pairs pretty much all year - and finally we moved 1500 points in 6 days on both pairs - still say GA will reach 2.000 .

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all jpy crossses- investors waste of time & money - nothing else

i do keep an eye on eur/chf & gbp/chf - for huge reversals- all of this looks like a FINAL extension !

581 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Aug 09, 2011 2:47 pm

PipChick

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Hey Gucci Smile Good to see you! Yes, I am uncertain about the monthly chart. It has me a little baffled.You may be right about that not being a bull flag.

http://forexalliancefx.com/

582 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Aug 09, 2011 2:55 pm

Guest


Guest
hi --

daily view - on the chart im using 2 fib extensions- big 1st wave and other ext is current AB where i earlier point out an untest ress sits @ 1.4770 ( 100 FE ) - profit taking level ( possible scalp short aswell )

current AB shows also a messy inverted H&S - this is a typical wave 5 scenario in play - can take weeks to get even to 1.5 - but again it can take an hour to break below 1.4050 - so im staying flat ,but watch it with a HAWK eye -

take care

gucc

583 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Aug 09, 2011 3:14 pm

Guest


Guest
PipChick wrote:Hey Gucci Smile Good to see you! Yes, I am uncertain about the monthly chart. It has me a little baffled.You may be right about that not being a bull flag.

hey !! hope all well !

here is a perfect example of these kind of tops - current aus/jpy daily chart - looks alike of a bullflag ?? -but volumes was extreme bearish ! in every top inside the channel.

same with eur/usd monthly ,volumes is clearly bearish !! but we will surely see when we top- it took us so far 16 months from the bottom of the channel to where we are right now and we can still notch a bit higher -

so lets see if we topp - a drop back down to the bottom of the channel in less than 16 months - lol

(this pattern is HUGE-can take years to complete -

584 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Aug 09, 2011 4:41 pm

Guest


Guest
i went into longs after fomc - accidently ! target 1.4770 for time being- this chart is my bullish view to 1.55 - monthly looks extremely bullish and 1.5 might only be a pitstop and 1.55 is the actual level we might see-lets see

585 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:15 am

Guest


Guest
closed longs of min 150 pip- swittch over to bears last night --stops above 1.4450 and target 1.34 -- booring PA until dec. - waste of time & money of an investor -

this downmove will contniue as it is until dec. in a down pullback to 1.34 / 1.33xx before bullish continue next year ! only my view

take care!

G

586 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:58 pm

PipChick

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I wont be here to trade this set up, but for the pattern traders, it
appears we have a double short side pattern developing.
H1 chart:

http://forexalliancefx.com/

587 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:02 pm

PipChick

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BTW...Welcome Guest Smile
I was chuckling when I read you went long accidentally because yesterday I went short USD/CHF meaning to go short EU and as the price on my chart moved ONLYa few pips, my pip gain was reading +80.lol
Needless to say, I booked them after realizing what I just did!

http://forexalliancefx.com/

588 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:02 pm

PipChick

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I will not be here tomorrow, so I am wishing everyone many pips! I am also looking forward to being more active on the thread mid Sept early Oct. Its a necessity to take full advantage of the summer where I live, as it doesn't last long.lol

http://forexalliancefx.com/

589 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:44 am

PipChick

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Looking to test the 4350 area possily. Unless price breaks above 4480ish. Sold at 4441. sl above 80

EU H1

http://forexalliancefx.com/

590 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:12 am

PipChick

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Probably time to scale out of eu short with +31 and move sl to BE and see what I can get out of this Smile

http://forexalliancefx.com/

591 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Wed Aug 31, 2011 7:31 pm

PipChick

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Closed this eur short trade at 4374.I think there is still the possibility of price testing 4350 or lower but I will give it some time and maybe look to resell a little higher UNLESS I see signs of a long developing.

http://forexalliancefx.com/

592 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Thu Sep 01, 2011 7:11 am

PipChick

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We know what this means..possible pull back on the EU

http://forexalliancefx.com/

593 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:45 am

PipChick

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Possible abc short set up with a possible target of 1.2545


http://forexalliancefx.com/

594 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:50 am

PipChick

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Looking longer term: weekly chart: abc short with a downside HS formation. 1st scenario, test the neck line from here or....test the 78.6 first and then test the neckline before finishing out the pattern. Will have to let the smaller timeframe charts lead the way.

http://forexalliancefx.com/

595 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:55 am

PipChick

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m15 chart: close below the lower TL could possibly get the short ball rolling.

http://forexalliancefx.com/

596 Re: EUR/USD (GENERAL) on Tue Jan 17, 2012 1:40 pm

AlexC

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Glad to see your back K.
Happy New Year.
I have a monthly chart with a trendline that would be met around 1.2500

http://i45.servimg.com/u/f45/16/35/72/93/eu_01118.gif

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