EUR/USD (GENERAL)

infinitus wrote:Hi friends,

here are 3 proposals for an elliott wave count. A very good Murrey Math target is around 4648.

We will see.....


The chart in the middle may be the most likely one.

Hey infinitis,
Your Murray Math target was in line with my ab=cd target. The D target was met so maybe we can get a little retracement then another move up. I scored 304 pips on that tread

EU H4

AlexC wrote:

Alex, we have been trading in that channel for a long time. A break out of the channel could be violent

This is the weekly and the 15 minute chart.
The next target on the weekly is 4774 (FE 78.6) and to complete the ab=cd on the weekly chart, the target is 5287 (FE 100). The m15 has dipped down and the next entry long could be the 61.8 or 78.6 on the m15 chart. Have to wait and see what the PA looks like at that point for a possible long.

EU WK and M15

Now that the h4 has completed the ab=cd, we can remove the FE 's and apply a new regular fib to the chart. We do have a risk of testing the h4 50 ema which lies right on the 50% retracement. Taking the m15 abc pattern "could" be a little risky but I will check the PA when the price reaches the m15 61.8 or 78.6 fib before entering. The PA should tell us if we will have a deeper retracement or not when price reaches the levels on the m15.

EU H4 new:

The following chart is the DX weekly. You will notice that the weekly chart has a head and shoulders pattern where price has closed below the neckline. There is also an ABC short pattern with the target being 67.93. The next immediate target on the DX is the weekly FE 61.8 at 73.17. Im not sure, but I think we will continue up on the EU until these DX targets are met. Then maybe a sell off on the eu at that point.

DX weekly

Another thing we have to keep a watch on is the monthly YM. It is approaching the 78.6 fib with bearish hidden divergence. If we close the month above that, we "should" go further up. But if we close the month below that 78.6, then we could start to see the EU sell off. Keeping an eye on the dx and ym at this point is crucial when trading the EU.

YM monthly:

Now lets throw OIL into the mix. Oil is approaching its 78.6 fib and beginning to form bearish hidden divergence. When YM and oil hit their upside targets and when DX hits its downside targets, this is where we need to be careful buying any more EU.
I think the end of the month charts will be very important.

OIL Monthly

Excellent analysis as always PC

pipper wrote:Excellent analysis as always PC

Thanks pipper

If this blue area on the m15 holds along with the h4 5 ema, I will look to go long. An m15 close below 4562, then I will wait for a better price. It is possible the h4 could spike below the 5 ema but close back above it.

EU m15

One other thing..this DX m15 needs to hold below the 61.8 and NOT close above it.

DX m15

Have a Happy Easter everyone and stay healthy.

Hello traders,

with yesterdays break of 74,17 in UDX, one have to do a serious recount of UDX.

So I thought it would be appropriate to reevaluate the count for EURUSD, too.

We have seen that UDX and EURUSD have moved over the last years nearly mirror inverted. Maybe this can continue.

The UDX has the following "ingredients":


EUR 57,6%
JPY 13,6%
GBP 11,9%
CAD 9,1%
SEK 4,2%
CHF 3,6%

So nearly 58% of UDX consists of EUR.

It is no question, which of EUR and USD is the stronger currency. We have to ask, which one is the weaker, which one will eventually default earlier.

With some other "stronger" currencies in the basket, UDX may suffer more than USDEUR. So it might be, that EURUSD finds a top a little bit earlier than UDX finds a bottom. But I think, that that will happen at nearly the same time.

Headache caused the move down in EURUSD from 1.51x to 1.18x. One can count it as impulse, one can even so count it as corrective move.

Those of you which read my blog frequently know, that I fairly often (always) use Awesome Oscillator (AO) to judge the waves.

Each time AO shows the highest/lowest readings at the end of a move one should either think that it was not an impulse but a C wave (C wave impulse) or one is looking at a commodity chart (commodities show highest pressure normally in its wave 5).

So back again to the movement from 1.51x to 1.18x. Judging it with AO and RSI I tend to belive that that is an ABC correction after all. Now with the situation in UDX (here we have right now no other chance as to label it as an ABC impulse), I feel confident, that that move in the end was only an ABC correction.

This issue clearly shows, that EW is a tricky thing. It is tricky, since one often tends to count what one belives and not that what is really in the cards. And that is a very serious issue especially in Forex, since the waves here are not as clear as one would like to see. We have often the situation, that we can count one wave corrective and impulsive at the same time. We should be every time remembered, that our count should fit with RSI and AO readings as well as with sentiment data.

So what do we see in this "new"count?

We are in Cycle wave 2 (green) (down) of Supercycle wave 3 (magenta) (up).

In Cycle wave 2 we are right now in Primary wave B (yellow) (up) which could have been already finished on last Thursday at 4648, or will eventually extend in the area of 1.51 to 1.55. This count will only be invalidated with a movement above 1.6037, since Cycle wave 2 can not go beyond the start of Cycle wave 1.

Primary B (yellow) of Cycle wave 2 (green) has traced out so far a WXY pattern. Here we are in wave Y.

This wave Y consists so far out of a double "three" (ABC-x-ABC). The second ABC is now a little bit more than 61.8% of the first ABC. It has to reach 5295 to get eaqual (but is not necessary).

Right now price has got stopped at a serious fib cluster. At 4683 wave aqua Y is 100% of aqua W.
At the same time we are at the 61.8% retracement of 1.60x and 1.232x (wave yellow A).

At 5239, 5295 and 5448 we have the next fib cluster.



Projections:

If we stopped at 4648, wave yellow C should reach normally 100-165% of wave A. That would give targets between 1,08x and 0.85x.

If we end at the 52x level, wave yellow C should see targets between 1.16 and 0.93

If we get a running flat, prices should end between 1.30 and 1.24. But running flats are rare. EWP states, that nine times out of ten you will find, that it was not a running flat but wrong counting.

My experience on that: on small TF like 1 5 or 15min you can see them regularly, but on big TF's they are really very rare.



4648 is a very important Murrey Math level on weekly, daily, 4h, 1h TF. It is at this TF's the 8/8 resistance line which should be very hard to break through (at least at the first attempt). If this line is not cracked, we can easily drop 7-9 octave lines without a long look back.

+1/8 and +2/8 lines on weekly TF at 4892 and 5136.


Maybe later more analyses.

Wish all of you a very nice weekend.


Best to you,

Markus

hello traders, happy eastern to all americans, and happy weekend to all the rest.........

greast analisis infinitus.......

chonchy wrote:hello traders, happy eastern to all americans, and happy weekend to all the rest.........

greast analisis infinitus.......

Happy Easter to you also Chonchy
I was just looking at this h1 bull flag. If the price remains above the upper bullflag TL, then we can expect about 489 pips north. That just doesnt seem right..lol But thats what the charts say.

EU H1


I would really like to see the h4 test the 50 ema or the 50 % for another long. I will see what happens in a bit and may have to play this bull flag pattern if price refuses to come down any further.

EU H4

I entered this trade when the gap closed at 4560 and locked in at break even. Also scaled out at +15 and looking for an ab=cd target of 4697.Another reason I entered was the bull flag tl held.

EU H1

Mikey,

Divergence plays: We have completed 1 thru 4 and are now in the process of play 5 and beginning to form play 6.We dont know when play 6 will begin but we see signs of it by having bear gartleys on all tf's from m15 thru weekly.

Daily macd chart:

good call Pipchick and now you should be long from here 4527 like me, lol

PipChick wrote:I entered this trade when the gap closed at 4560 and locked in at break even. Also scaled out at +15 and looking for an ab=cd target of 4697.Another reason I entered was the bull flag tl held.

EU H1

I took about 30 pips out of this before price retraced back to my break even point. I will most likely look for a retracement for another long.Still working towards 4697 target.

PipChick wrote:

PipChick wrote:I entered this trade when the gap closed at 4560 and locked in at break even. Also scaled out at +15 and looking for an ab=cd target of 4697.Another reason I entered was the bull flag tl held.

EU H1

I took about 30 pips out of this before price retraced back to my break even point. I will most likely look for a retracement for another long.Still working towards 4697 target.

this 4492 look good for a long PC......

Price seems to be holding above the h1 bull flag upper tl. If that tl holds, the target is 5075. (I know...that seems far fetched..lol. But thats what the charts say.)

EU H1

It will be interesting to see how the month closes. Right now, price is trading above the upper trend line of the bull flag. If it closes that way, we could see a pull back to the upper trendline and then further north.

EU monthly

PipChick wrote:Price seems to be holding above the h1 bull flag upper tl. If that tl holds, the target is 5075. (I know...that seems far fetched..lol. But thats what the charts say.)

EU H1

So far , so good. Am up 43 pips for now. We will see what she wants to give up. Took some pips off the table and will let it run now as long as price holds above my BE point.

Oooooops..was logged in as Admin.lol

nice trading

good calls PC.........I add to my shorts at 4710.....i shorted earlier at 4650........