EUR/USD (GENERAL)

stop by later, good luck to all, and have a good weekend...PTL

Here's part of the reason I held my longs. I am no VSA expert, but I do like to watch for volumes when market is moving fast.

The first 2 downbars indicated show ultra high volume on the downbar following NFP. The first of these has ultra high volume which is to be expected. The second downbar was also high volume and also finished as a downbar. There is nothing too extraordinary about this; we have to wait to see if there was heavy buying at that time....
The next few bars were pretty uneventful and price climbed slightly, BUT on lowering volume. Not strength.
The next fall lower should not have been a surprise, (it was to me as I wasn't paying enough attention lol). The important thing about this is we had a fall through support on low volume followed by a further fall to make a new low on high volume. This signifies buyers are trying to stem the flow of selling.
The next 2 bars were on reasonable volume, (upbar), and a lower volume, (downbar). This is important and as it turned out was a test for the bears to take this lower. They didn't respond.
The next bar, (up), was on higher volume and engulfed the previous 3 candles. A good sign that we've hit the low.
The test for a long trade if you want to go long would then be a low volume, small bar down. This indicates the sellers have dried up and the most likely direction is up.

I hope, you caught that move or some of it at least... I didn't. As usual, when the meal is ready, the fun begins. I didn't expect this.

Mikey,
This is one of my favorite little trades concerning volume.....




Hi volume pin bar. You can trade it on any time frame but with the h4 of course you would need a larger stop and I wouldn't trade it on whacky NFP friday. If the volume is very hi and if the candle closes as a pin then that is the entry on the close of the candle. But...keep in mind that a lot of times, the price will retrace 50-61.8% of the candle. Thats not a big problem on a smaller time frame but on a 4 hr, it could cause a decent drawdown. To avoid that, you can wait for a retrace and watch the lower TF PA for an entry (looking for the same scenario (hi vol pin) on an m5 or m15 chart)or take a riskier trade on the break of the candle hi. For it to be valid tho, it there MUST be high volume present.

Say Pip Chick, have you invited anyone else over thus far?

Mr Hatch wrote:I hope, you caught that move or some of it at least... I didn't. As usual, when the meal is ready, the fun begins. I didn't expect this.

I was suprised by the distance it traveled down, thought it would be shorter. With this in mind I only scalped out of fear of a quick retracement up. When it reached 4069 I was sure it would travel to 4038 to reverse there. So I got no good entry on the way up. On hourly the retrace of the second candle up was very short. So I am again only in scalping mode. Maybe 4160 will give a good entry.....

infinitus wrote:

Mr Hatch wrote:I hope, you caught that move or some of it at least... I didn't. As usual, when the meal is ready, the fun begins. I didn't expect this.

I was suprised by the distance it traveled down, thought it would be shorter. With this in mind I only scalped out of fear of a quick retracement up. When it reached 4069 I was sure it would travel to 4038 to reverse there. So I got no good entry on the way up. On hourly the retrace of the second candle up was very short. So I am again only in scalping mode. Maybe 4160 will give a good entry.....

I left the screen at 4090, because I was surprised it exceeded 4111.9. The drop didn't mean to me, we are suddenly turning bearish on the higher timeframes, but that reversal is hillarious. Well, that's how a test down works. I'm happy, that I don't happen to get trapped in them any more.

Current PA just indicates that a great entry, which should be safe over the weekend, was missed.

Well... I need to concentrate on medium/longer term aspects of this.

I watched PipChick's video after I registered and thought about it. It is not that I disagree on the AB=CD idea on the H4 and even daily... but as a huge bear I have a problem to give up 4280 that easily.

Hi PTL,i crawled through countless web pages on the search for a good solution for our fib problem. But I can not find a single indi that we can use. There are several indis, that look for a high and low in a specified timeframe and draw the fib retracements automatically. I thought to use one of them by applying it on the chart and moving it later manually where I needed it. But they all jump back to their previous location.

I could not even find the source code for the build-in fibs.

Maybe someone is able to code a fib-retracement indi which can be placed anywhere on the chart manually.

I asked Kill if he knows such an indi and he believed that he put some at the "graveyard", but I did not fund one that was useful for our usage.

PipChick wrote:Mikey,
This is one of my favorite little trades concerning volume.....




Hi volume pin bar. You can trade it on any time frame but with the h4 of course you would need a larger stop and I wouldn't trade it on whacky NFP friday. If the volume is very hi and if the candle closes as a pin then that is the entry on the close of the candle. But...keep in mind that a lot of times, the price will retrace 50-61.8% of the candle. Thats not a big problem on a smaller time frame but on a 4 hr, it could cause a decent drawdown. To avoid that, you can wait for a retrace and watch the lower TF PA for an entry (looking for the same scenario (hi vol pin) on an m5 or m15 chart)or take a riskier trade on the break of the candle hi. For it to be valid tho, it there MUST be high volume present.

I am investigating this movement on M5... not tradable for me as it lacks the low vol retest. Or this what Williams calls a hidden test, which I don't know for sure... too long ago that I read "Master the Markets".

[quote="Mr Hatch"][quote="infinitus"]

Mr Hatch wrote:

I watched PipChick's video after I registered and thought about it. It is not that I disagree on the AB=CD idea on the H4 and even daily... but as a huge bear I have a problem to give up 4280 that easily.

Havn't watched her video. But you know: I am a EUR bear as well. I would like to offer 4361. That is the point where (assuming the move up from 1.18 to the high is a big ABC) wave C is 0.6187 x A

PipChick wrote:macd:

http://www.mediafire.com/?pw0j2k8y2fpb620

currency meter:

http://www.mediafire.com/?t14bifm31a0bx9b

Just click on the link to download. Wait for the mediafire ad to go away then download.

The currency meter is a MUST HAVE.

Try this currency meter too. Its advantage is, that it is sorting the currencies accortding to their strenght.

See here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=503310&d=1278484270

infinitus wrote:

PipChick wrote:macd:

http://www.mediafire.com/?pw0j2k8y2fpb620

currency meter:

http://www.mediafire.com/?t14bifm31a0bx9b

Just click on the link to download. Wait for the mediafire ad to go away then download.

The currency meter is a MUST HAVE.

Try this currency meter too. Its advantage is, that it is sorting the currencies accortding to their strenght.

See here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=503310&d=1278484270

The currency meter can really save you when you are thinking of entering a trade. I wont trade without it

infinitus wrote:Hi PTL,i crawled through countless web pages on the search for a good solution for our fib problem. But I can not find a single indi that we can use.

Pitty, but thanks for you effort I/Man.

Very good reading about trading hidden divergences:

http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/f046bd84-a7ad-43e8-97ce-5e3eddfda81c/8664edde-f11f-4681-b497-4a3ffee873e5.pdf

Right now no clear understanding of the moves. But since the move up lacks again a clear impulsive structure, it comes to mind, that we are forming a huge corrective between 4248 (03.22.2011) and 4021.

Down from the top at 4248 I can count a big ABC down to 4248 (which can not be counted as a leading diagonal down.

The following move up is a complex corrective pattern which could either have ended at 4231 as wave B with wave C down ended post NFP at 4061 (all the moves in this ABC consits out of ABC, so this moves should be correct labeled as WXY) or the sharp move up post NFP is a part of the wave B (up) (or better part of the wave X) (since this post NFP move up seems to be an impulse but structure - so far - does not clearly show an impulse).

If the latter one is true we should reverse again on Sunday, only to go higher again thereafter.

If it is the first one, we should see impulsive upward movement on Sunday/Monday (after a small drop) for the final waves up.

Another possibility is, that we likely will see a triangle here. If that is the case we will see (starting from Sunday night) a down - up - down sequence between 4248 and 4021.

Thereafter we should see a final move higher.

I do not think, that we have seen a final high already. If that would be the case, we would be down in a leading diagonal with wave 1 ending at 4021 and wave 2 ended at yesterdays high. But I think the retracement was too deep for a leading diagonal (in a LD retraces are normally between 62 and 83%).

So I think we may go higher in the next days.

3 good targets:

a) around 4250 - respecting the very importing downsloping TL on monthly TF which connect the highs at 1.6x and 1.5x (including a bit of overthrow)

b) around 4282 - respecting the last top there in November 2010 and building a nice double top

c) around 4360 - at this point, assuming the whole move up from 1.18 is a huge ABC, wave C is 0.618x wave A. Since this assumption/target is a target of first choise too in the stock markets for many indices, it might here come true too


A last word for the "impulse" up post NFP announcement:

This move up looks impulsive until it reached 4215 (look at 30min chart).
Then we got a wave down, then very corrective up to the top, from there corrective down.

For this to stay in impulsive (5 wave) mode, the movement from 4215 should evolve as a flat corretion. In this flat correction we would now be in wave C down. This wave C down should bring us back to 4205 or ideally to 4191.

If we run Sunday/Monday through 4160 without making a new high, we are in the corrective scenario described above.

When we respect the area between 4190 and 4175 we should see new highs very quickly.

The situation is very murky here and we can fulfill a lot of scenarios.

After a while I even found a (relatively) clear way to label the move up post NFP as impulse. See picture.

So we have to stay open minded and react to price action accordingly.


I wish all of you a nice weekend.

Markus

Here is a count which should bring an immediate drop in EURUSD to stay true.

Wave blue 1 down counts a little bad especially on lower TF's, so this count is to be taken with a grain of salt. I still favor the scenario for a further move up, or that the impulse up on Friday was a truncated 5.

But on the other hand it would fit very good to what we see in UDX. Keep in mind that with date 03.21.2011 there were only 4% USD bulls left. Everyone seems to be positioned already for a further decline in USD. That bodes well for a sudden move up in USD or a decline in EUR.

Hi all,am I the only one here who is working on a Saturday? :-)

On FF I have published a fresh analysis in an response to Jaylovin, who thought that we could be in an Leading Diagonal in a B wave. OK, that was a bit wrong (see mail), but gave me a very good idea.

The post-link is here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4517064&postcount=417152

But you can read it here:



Hi Jaylovin,

good idea to count the leg up as a (leading) diagonal. But your count seems to be wrong, not the diagonal part but the labeling of the diagonal wave as B.

B waves can not be diagonals, no leading (LD) nor ending diagonal (ED).

B waves have to be corrective in nature. The can not even be pseudo impulsive like a LD or ED. They can be threes, flats, zigzag, WXY(x)Z, double or triple threes or triangles. But never be an impulse or LD or ED.

So this wave has to be a wave C (or maybe W). An ED could be a wave 5, but I do not see here the possibility of a 5 wave count since 1.18

A LD can be wave 1 of a 5 wave impulse or wave A of an ABC. Neither fits here.

Prechter/Hochberg sees us at the end of a double three. The first ABC from 1.18 to 1.428x, then the X wave and no the second ABC, where we are now in leg C.

I would like that especialy in combination with your (we call it now) Ending Diagonal as wave C.

When price builds a new high, we have to move your 3 into the position of your 5. When I look at your chart I have the feeling that the 3 should sit there already, since I have the highest reading in Awesome Oscillator at your wave 5 (and that should be wave 3).

Since wave 3 of this ED is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 has to be shorter than wave 3.

Wave 3 traveled 496 pips.

The low of wave 4 was at 4021, slightly under the end of wave 1 at 4036.

In a LD or ED we have to see this wave 1 and 4 overlap.

In an contracting ED (as we might have here) wave 5 ends normally beyond the end of wave 3 and ideally at a line (or beyond that - overthrow) that connects wave 1 and 3.

With wave 4 ending at 4021 and a wave 3 which traveled 496 pips, wave 5 can reach maximum 4517.

At 4360 the second ABC is 0.618x the first ABC.

The above mentioned trendline (wave 1 / wave 3) crosses Monday at around 440 (wonderful target) and Tuesday at around 4450.

The fib retracement 78.6% from 1.52 to 1.18 is at 4436. In this area I have several other fib confluences.

OK, so far I like this count.

Maybe the impulse up at Friday was the wave A of wave 5. So we could expect a pullback for wave B in the area of the heart of the wave A (around 4170) (that would be a 50% pullback). When wave C is then equal wave A we would land around 4360.

If we get an extended wave C we could see 440x with C = 1.618x A

test

infinitus wrote:Very good reading about trading hidden divergences:

http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/f046bd84-a7ad-43e8-97ce-5e3eddfda81c/8664edde-f11f-4681-b497-4a3ffee873e5.pdf

I love Hidden Divergences. Thanks for that link

Thanks for the invite Chonchy. I'm not trading at the moment, nothing is wrong---i'm doing more market studies.

It looks like I got my "ger" FF could never provide

1 clue: volume analysis.

http://lib.store.yahoo.net/lib/yhst-77738661408691/TCVN011610.html

daily fe 100 = 4412 area also. i think it should be an interesting area to keep focus on.

fxtrader_pk wrote:1 clue: volume analysis.

http://lib.store.yahoo.net/lib/yhst-77738661408691/TCVN011610.html

daily fe 100 = 4412 area also. i think it should be an interesting area to keep focus on.

I have anything over 4280 as breaking the monthly trend line. At that level, I would start looking at that for support, for further move north. Looking at the Dow and S&P, coupled with the latest eU downgrades, I think we will be heading south a lot sooner than 4400 area. just an opinion though, and have a serious news week ahead so I gues we'll see. Have a good green week, talk to you Sunday opening!

fxtrader_pk wrote:1 clue: volume analysis.

http://lib.store.yahoo.net/lib/yhst-77738661408691/TCVN011610.html

daily fe 100 = 4412 area also. i think it should be an interesting area to keep focus on.

Looking at the same levels with my trading strategy.4412 will be very interesting but I really think we are headed there.
4412-18 will complete the AB=CD target on the daily chart.

tonyo524 wrote:

I have anything over 4280 as breaking the monthly trend line. At that level, I would start looking at that for support, for further move north. Looking at the Dow and S&P, coupled with the latest eU downgrades, I think we will be heading south a lot sooner than 4400 area. just an opinion though, and have a serious news week ahead so I gues we'll see. Have a good green week, talk to you Sunday opening!

I will have to take a look at the TL you are talking about Tonyo. That could potentially put a damper on my analysis.

tonyo524 wrote:

fxtrader_pk wrote:1 clue: volume analysis.

http://lib.store.yahoo.net/lib/yhst-77738661408691/TCVN011610.html

daily fe 100 = 4412 area also. i think it should be an interesting area to keep focus on.

I have anything over 4280 as breaking the monthly trend line. At that level, I would start looking at that for support, for further move north. Looking at the Dow and S&P, coupled with the latest eU downgrades, I think we will be heading south a lot sooner than 4400 area. just an opinion though, and have a serious news week ahead so I gues we'll see. Have a good green week, talk to you Sunday opening!

yes, i'm aware of the monthly tl you see. only 2 tests though. it can penetrate and test 4400 area and get rejected and still be valid in monthly perspective. in the mean time, only thing we can do is play it level by level in daily bases. i'm also looking into short opportunity from here, if weekly gives me a bearish divergence signal with rejection of candle should give a green light to shorts for a while.